Data on epidemics described by researchers at University of Strathclyde
2009 JUL 14 - (NewsRx.com) -- "In this paper we consider the phenomenon of backward bifurcation in epidemic modelling illustrated by an extended model for Bovine Respiratory Syncytial Virus (BRSV) amongst cattle. In its simplest form, backward bifurcation in epidemic models usually implies the existence of two subcritical endemic equilibria for R (0) < 1, where R (0) is the basic reproductive number, and a unique supercritical endemic equilibrium for R (0) > 1. In our three-stage extended model we find that more complex bifurcation diagrams are possible," scientists in Scotland report. "The paper starts with a review of some of the previous work on backward bifurcation then describes our three-stage model. We give equilibrium and stability results, and also provide some biological motivation for the model being studied. It is shown that backward bifurcation can occur in the three-stage model for small b, where b is the common per capita birth and death rate. We are able to classify the possible bifurcation diagrams," wrote D. Greenhalgh and colleagues, University of Strathclyde. The researchers concluded: "Some realistic numerical examples are discussed at the end of the paper, both for b small and for larger values of b.." Greenhalgh and colleagues published their study in the Journal of Mathematical Biology (Backward bifurcation, equilibrium and stability phenomena in a three-stage extended BRSV epidemic model. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 2009;59(1):1-36). For additional information, contact D. Greenhalgh, University of Strathclyde, Dept. of Statistics & Modelling Science, Livingstone Tower, 26 Richmond St., Glasgow G1 1XH, Lanark, Scotland. The publisher's contact information for the Journal of Mathematical Biology is: Springer, 233 Spring St., New York, NY 10013, USA. Keywords: Scotland, Epidemics, Infectious Disease, Pulmonology, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, University of Strathclyde. This article was prepared by Virus Weekly editors from staff and other reports. Copyright 2009, Virus Weekly via NewsRx.com.
|
