"Reconstruction and Prediction of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic among Adults in the European Union and in the Low Prevalence Countries of Central and Eastern Europe."

According to the authors' abstract of an article published in AIDS, "Objectives: To reconstruct the HIV epidemic and to provide forecasts of AIDS incidence among adults in the European Union (EU) and in a group of low prevalence (LP) countries of central and eastern Europe (including the Asian republics of the former Soviet Union). Methods: An empirical Bayesian back-calculation method was applied to AIDS incidence data reported by 31 March 1994. The HIV-infection curve was modelled as a yearly step function and a seven-stage Markov model of disease progression, incorporating effects of pre-AIDS treatment, was used. Estimation was by penalized maximum likelihood with...

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