Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease

vCJD epidemic estimated at 150-500 deaths if 11-15 year incubation period

Published in AIDS Weekly, October 11th, 2004

The vCJD epidemic is estimated at 150-500 deaths if the incubation period is between 11-15 years.

According to investigators in England, "Estimates of the final size of the variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob Disease epidemic have been made by fitting theoretical curves of the incubation period distribution to the histogram of observed annual deaths to 2002, using various assumptions of the mean and standard deviation of this distribution, and also of the efficacy of the Specified Bovine Offals ban of 1989."

"Unless the mean incubation time is greater than 15 to 20 years," wrote P.H.A. Sneath and colleagues, "the estimates lie in the low hundreds to about a...

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Source: AIDS Weekly (2004-10-11)

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