Imperial College London

Flu mortality formula is potentially misleading, say scientists

Published in Heart Disease Weekly, August 2nd, 2009

A standard calculation used in forecasting potential numbers of deaths during the swine flu pandemic risks misleading healthcare planners by being open to both over- and under-estimation of the true figures, say the authors of new research published in the British Medical Journal.

The proportion of people who die due to infection during an influenza outbreak - known as the case fatality ratio - is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of cases in the same time period. Early data from the current swine flu pandemic suggested that the new influenza A (H1N1) virus causes mild disease, with case fatality ratios of around 0.5%, or 5 deaths per 1000...

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Source: Heart Disease Weekly (2009-08-02)

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