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Epidemiology

Branching model estimates spread of infectious diseases in varying environments

Published in TB and Outbreaks Week, February 15th, 2005

A branching model estimates the spread of infectious diseases in varying environments.

According to published research from the Netherlands, "This paper is concerned with a stochastic model, describing outbreaks of infectious diseases that have potentially great animal or human health consequences, and which can result in such severe economic losses that immediate sets of measures need to be taken to curb the spread.

"During an outbreak of such a disease, the environment that the infectious agent experiences is therefore changing due to the subsequent control measures taken. In our model, we introduce a general branching process in a changing (but...

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