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Global Epidemic Prediction

Global epidemics predicted by stochastic model of airline transportation networks

Published in TB and Outbreaks Week, April 18th, 2006

Stochastic model uses airline transportation network to predict global epidemics.

According to recent research from the United States, "The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations.

"These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics."

"In this article," said V. Colizza and colleagues at Indiana University, "we present a stochastic computational framework...

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