Obama Medical Exam Sunday Will Include Bad News //
His Smoking More than Doubles His Chances of Dying Withing 10 Years
When President Barack Obama undergoes his first medical exam as President on Sunday, he should receive some bad news: his smoking increases his odds of dying of lung cancer during the next 10 years about 1000%, and his overall odds of dying during the next 10 years by about 160%, says mathematician, statistician, and public interest law professor John Banzhaf, Executive Director of Action on Smoking and Health (ASH).
According to the most recently updated and widely accept charts of death rates, a 45-year-old man has only 1 chance out of 100,000 of dying from lung cancer in the following 10 years if he never smoked, but the number goes to 8 -- and 700% increase -- if he is a smoker. For a 50-year-old-man, the risks are only 1 out of 100,000 for a never smoker, and 18 for a smoker -- a 1700% increase. Obama will by 49 in August, so his risk is likely about midway between these two figures.
The difference in his overall chances of dying from all causes is also striking. A 45-year-old man has 35 chances out of 100,000 of dying from all causes if he never smoked, but the number goes to 91 -- about 160% increase -- if he is a smoker. For a 50-year-old man, the chances of dying from all causes increases from 49 to 128 -- again about a 160% increase -- if he smokes.
This data comes from an article in The Family Physician which provides the following advice for physicians, such as those who will be examining the President on Sunday: "the risk charts illustrate several comparisons that may assist physicians in encouraging healthy behaviors and prioritizing preventive measures. Smoking dramatically increases the risk of death from vascular disease, cancer, and lung disease in men and women throughout the adult lifespan."
Prof. Banzhaf thinks it likely that the President's physicians will follow this advice to encourage healthy behaviors and prioritize preventive measures by very strongly urging Obama to carry out his earlier promise to quit. Smoking, as the report notes, is clearly the most important single factor. Indeed, the risk assessment chart provides different risks based on only one factor -- smoking -- and does not try to assess smaller risks from obesity, lack of exercise, etc.
Ironically, there are rumors that President Obama chair-smoked during the luncheon break in the health care reform summit he chaired on Thursday. If so, it appears that his doctors may have a harder time convincing him to quit, especially if his efforts directed as the health care crisis continue to create the heavy stresses which may be contributing to his smoking behavior.
Smoking clearly is the major factor between the President's chances of dying in the next 10 year of his life and the odds for Michelle Obama -- who was 45 in January -- of passing away during that same period. His chances of death are now more than 4 times higher than her's but, if he were a nonsmoker, these odds would fall to less than 2-1.
Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) hopes these comparisons might help persuade President Obama to quit, as well as many other men and women of comparable age who are likewise otherwise apparently in good health and wish to enjoy a long healthy life.
PROFESSOR JOHN F. BANZHAF III
Professor of Public Interest Law at GWU,
FAMRI Dr. William Cahan Distinguished Professor,
FELLOW, World Technology Network, and
Executive Director and Chief Counsel
Action on Smoking and Health (ASH)
America’s First Antismoking Organization
2013 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20006, USA
(202) 659-4310 // (703) 527-8418
http://ash.org/
